Jun 17, 2023

High pressure slides away from the FLX, leading to several weather…

High pressure is overhead to start the day today, but as it slides to the east, some changes will start to take hold.

Cool temperatures are widespread across the region beneath the high and its mostly clear nighttime skies. Morning lows are ranging from the low 50s down to the mid 40s.

Scattered clouds will be possible through the morning and will increase by the midday and afternoon hours. Many of these will be fair-weather clouds, but some other clouds higher in the atmosphere will be possible as well.

Overall, it should be a bit cloudier than the last few days, though there will still be plenty of sun.

The sun will appear increasingly hazy, however, as a plume of wildfire smoke slowly seeps into the area from the west. This smoke is well above the surface, and air quality is expected to remain in the “Good” category for much of the day.

Winds will be nearly calm, but temperatures will add a few degrees compared to yesterday simply because of the lack of a north wind. Look for afternoon highs in the mid and upper 70s with a few places around 80 degrees.

Partly to mostly cloudy, and smoky, skies will be common overnight with an increasing southerly breeze. Some scattered showers may even be possible during the predawn hours, especially across the northern half of the region.

Nighttime temperatures will be much warmer, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Any lingering showers should depart quickly Thursday morning. Skies will be partly cloudy, but smoky. The smoke on Thursday should be thicker than on Wednesday, and some impact on air quality will be possible as bits of the smoke mix down to the surface.

It is not clear at this time where the air quality will end up, but I think the yellow “Moderate” range is most likely, with a small chance of entering the orange “Unhealthy for sensitive groups” category.

The smoke should hold temperatures down a couple degrees compared to a clear day. Expect highs mostly in the low 80s.

A few more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible late in the day and into the evening hours. Northern areas will again be favored, but anywhere in the Finger Lakes could see some late rain.

A cold front will move through the area on Friday. Currently, the timing of the front favors precipitation in the morning and midday hours, with some lingering showers and storms later into the afternoon for the Southern Tier.

A couple storms may have some gusty winds, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Temperatures on Friday will likely top out in the mid or upper 70s. Winds will turn from the south to the north as the front passes through.

It is uncertain what the situation will be with smoke on Friday, especially with the front coming through.

Saturday may have a stray morning shower early on, but most of the day should be a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will take a small hit from the front, with highs generally in the mid 70s.

Winds will take on a more southerly direction on Sunday as the next weather system approaches. Sunday, however, will stay dry and at least partly sunny. Look for high temperatures to bounce back to around 80 degrees.

That next system will arrive on Monday. Early indications are that this system will have support from the winds aloft for strong thunderstorms, if the surface conditions cooperate. This will be something to watch over the coming days.

The weather becomes rather uncertain beyond Monday’s system, with large spreads showing on the models for both temperature and precipitation. This far out, with this much uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach is best.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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